Monday, August 07, 2006

The Neo-Cons' Next War

Lebanon is the pre-game show. Iran is the main event. Reference is made to my earlier posts here and the deservedly famous work of Seymore Hersh on this subject here, here and here.

Sydney Blumenthal has more at Salon.com:


By secretly providing NSA intelligence to Israel and undermining the hapless Condi Rice, hardliners in the Bush administration are trying to widen the Middle East conflict to Iran and Syria, not stop it...

[Snip]

Inside the administration, neoconservatives on Vice President Dick Cheney's national security staff and Elliott Abrams, the neoconservative senior director for the Near East on the National Security Council, are prime movers behind sharing NSA intelligence with Israel, and they have discussed Syrian and Iranian supply activities as a potential pretext for Israeli bombing of both countries, the source privy to conversations about the program says. (Intelligence, including that gathered by the NSA, has been provided to Israel in the past for various purposes.) The neoconservatives are described as enthusiastic about the possibility of using NSA intelligence as a lever to widen the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and Israel and Hamas into a four-front war...

Get ready. This wont be good.

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Sunday, August 06, 2006

In Lebanon, Support for Hezbollah Spikes as Israel Attacks

In a previous post I made the following assessment of the future impact of Israel's total war in Lebanon:

Imagine for a moment these Hezbollah "operations" that are being targeted are not military in nature at all. Suppose instead that, like the victims in the attack on the UN observation post, the people who are being attacked are ordinary folks, citizens seeking social services and the workers there to provide it for them. The survivors, who politically may have been fence-sitters, might experience a change of opinion in favor Hezbollah after seeing their loved ones torn to pieces by Israel's US-made bombs. It just so happens that these multi-pronged activities Hezbollah provides in that community positions them uniquely to take advantage of any groundswell in anti-Israeli sentiments this bombardment may inspire. It gives them instant access to streams of disaffected, displaced and angry victims to whom they can provide shelter, nourishment, clothing and, most significantly, an immediate outlet for revenge.

Yes. As a result of this Israeli campaign in Lebanon, Hezbollah will be stronger. Just as one previous occupation created them, the second will strengthen them.


Unbeknownst to me at the time, this was already happening and being documented. The Christian Science Monitor, for example, has recently reported on a huge spike in popular support for Hezbollahthat has occurred in the wake of Israel's latest invasion of that country. The money quote:

Ghassan Farran, a doctor and head of a local cultural organization, gazes in disbelief at the pile of smoking ruins which was once his home. Minutes earlier, an Israeli jet dropped two guided missiles into the six-story apartment block in the centre of Tyre.

"Look what America gives us, bombs and missiles," says this educated, middle-class professional. "I was never a political person and never with Hizbullah but now after this I am with Hizbullah."

Multiply that by about 4-million people and you will understand how Israel, contrary to myth, has actually made Hezbollah stronger than it otherwise would have been. The same CSM report documents a 29% rise in Lebanese support for Hezbollah as per the results of a poll conducted in Lebanon after Israel began its offensive. The poll, conducted by the Beirut Center for Research and Information between July 24th and 26th, confirms that support for Hezbollah has soared disproportionately compared to the results of the same poll taken in February of this year. Most significantly, the increase is evident across sectarian lines. Here's a brief rundown of respondants indicating support for Hezbollah's fight against Israel:

  • 87% of Lebanese in general
  • 96% of the Shia population
  • 87% of Sunnis
  • 80% of Christians (Christians represent roughly 40% of Lebanon's population)
  • 80% of Druze

Please realize, I write this with the full understanding that this wasn't exactly a hard one to call. The US/Israeli conventional "wisdom" that claims that a population under indiscriminate bombardment will be moved to rally against their own countrymen instead of the forces who are actually dropping the bombs on them was always absurd on its face. Ask yourself, is that how America responded to 9/11? Is that how we reacted to Pearl Harbor? If not, why should anyone believe that such a perversely unnatural reaction should be expected elsewhere in the world, whether we're talking about Lebanon or Iraq? No, it was not a very difficult call at all. But I feel it still it has to be pointed out because we apparently cannot depend on our supposedly erudite and wise media spokesmodels to notice how people worldwide tend to dislike being bombed.

Yes, Hezbollah will stronger.

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Apocalypse Now... please?

The good folks over at AlterNet have posted a doozy of an article on the aforementioned apocalypticism regarding the middle-east. Here's a taste:

In a perfect world, a reporter at last week's press conference with George Bush and Tony Blair would have asked Bush, in the presence of his principal European ally, if he believes the European Union is the Antichrist.

Although it sounds like the kind of Pat Robertson lunacy that makes even the wingnuts run for the nearest exit, it's a question Bush should be forced to answer. Bush and other leading Republicans have lined up behind a growing movement of Christian Zionists for whom a European Antichrist figures prominently in an end-times scenario. So they should be forced to explain to the rest of us why they're courting the votes of people who believe our allies are evil incarnate. Could it be that the central requirement for their breathlessly anticipated Armageddon -- that the United States confront Iran -- happens to dovetail so nicely with the neoconservative war agenda?

At the center of it all is Pastor John Hagee, a popular televangelist who leads the 18,000-member Cornerstone Church in San Antonio, Texas. While Hagee has long prophesized about the end times, he ratcheted up his rhetoric this year with the publication of his book, "Jerusalem Countdown," in which he argues that a confrontation with Iran is a necessary precondition for ArmageddonChristians United for Israel (CUFI), which, as the Christian version of the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee, he said would cause "a political earthquake." and the Second Coming of Christ. In the best-selling book, Hagee insists that the United States must join Israel in a preemptive military strike against Iran to fulfill God's plan for both Israel and the West. Shortly after the book's publication, he launched

At CUFI's kick-off banquet at the Washington Hilton, attended by over 3,500 members, Republican support for both Hagee's effort and his drumbeat for war with Iran were on full view. Republican National Committee Chair Ken Mehlman told the group that "no regime is more central to the global jihad" than Iran. Just two days before, Newt Gingrich and John McCain made the rounds of the Sunday talk shows to sound the same message, leading Benny Elon, a member of the Israeli Knesset, to comment to the Jerusalem Post that their remarks originated with Hagee. Rick Santorum and Sam Brownback also addressed the group, and Bush sent words of support to the gathering. Republicans, and even some Democrats, spoke at CUFI events to show their "support for Israel." But while public and media attention was on the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Hagee's focus continued to be on Iran.

While the crisis at the Israel-Lebanon border drew more mainstream media attention to CUFI's activities, Hagee's supporters have long known that leading Republicans are listening. Rabbi Daniel Lapin, a prominent Jewish ally of the evangelical right (and friend of Jack Abramoff) has said that Hagee "without question, yes, absolutely" has the ear of the White House. Hagee's annual Night to Honor Israel at his church has drawn prominent Republicans, including Tom DeLay, who was the keynote speaker in 2002.

So, to answer the question again, yes, Condi is speaking in Christian fundamentalist code.

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Friday, August 04, 2006

360-Degrees, Vol 4: More Pro-Hezbollah Marchers in Baghdad

Here we go:



The demonstrations are getting larger. News reports vary on the size of the pro-Hezbollah rallies by
Iraq's Shia population in Baghdad.


I offer all of this in stark contrast to the
US military's press release which estimated the crowd at a ridiculously out-of-whack 14,000. I got a serious chuckle out of that one.

US officials know full well that the day the Shiites join the Iraqi insurgency en masse, the game is up. They know it. We know it. And they know we know it. That's not to say the that this game didn't come out of the box "pre-up". This whole project was a non-starter from day one. But the prospect of the Shia going sideways on it marks the "last throes, if you will" of the occupation.

Meanwhile, while the world is set ablaze, your President takes a vacation. After all, he's already told us this is a problem for some future president to worry about. Profiles in leadership.

PS - The photo the demonstrators are displaying is that of the head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.

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Thursday, August 03, 2006

Let me know when it's OK to call it a police state

In response to recent court rulings saying the President has no authority to try terrorism suspects in military tribunals, the Bush Administration, at their Orwellian best, propose as a solution to the "impasse" to try everybody in military tribunals. In order to address concerns that executive branch is reaching for far too much secret, unchecked power over citizens and foreigners alike they have proposed to leave it up to the Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, to decide who is protected by the US Constitution and who is not. Oh, sure, I suppose that makes everything all better.

I'm not kidding:

White House Proposal Would Expand Authority of Military Courts

By R. Jeffrey Smith
Washington
Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, August 2, 2006
; Page A04

A draft Bush administration plan for special military courts seeks to expand the reach and authority of such "commissions" to include trials, for the first time, of people who are not members of al-Qaeda or the Taliban and are not directly involved in acts of international terrorism, according to officials familiar with the proposal.

The plan, which would replace a military trial system ruled illegal by the Supreme Court in June, would also allow the secretary of defense to add crimes at will to those under the military court's jurisdiction. The two provisions would be likely to put more individuals than previously expected before military juries, officials and independent experts said.

The draft proposed legislation, set to be discussed at two Senate hearings today, is controversial inside and outside the administration because defendants would be denied many protections guaranteed by the civilian and traditional military criminal justice systems.

Under the proposed procedures, defendants would lack rights to confront accusers, exclude hearsay accusations, or bar evidence obtained through rough or coercive interrogations. They would not be guaranteed a public or speedy trial and would lack the right to choose their military counsel, who in turn would not be guaranteed equal access to evidence held by prosecutors.

Detainees would also not be guaranteed the right to be present at their own trials, if their absence is deemed necessary to protect national security or individuals...


That's right, boys and girls. Evidence gained by torture could be deemed admissible in a court of law in the United States of America just so long as Don Rumsfeld says it's OK. If the White House proposal becomes law, you could be tried in abstentia, without representation, on secret evidence obtained through torture for any alledged crime as long as Donnie Rumz decides to put it in his little black book of exceptions to the constitution (updated at his whim). Your government, the federal government of the United States of America -- "land of free, home of the brave" -- is actually considering such a thing, not just for "terrorists" but potentially for anyone.

Still think it's about protecting us? Ask yourself who protects us from them?

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360-Degrees, Vol 3: Iraqi Shiites March to Support Hezbollah

Here it comes...

Shiites go to Baghdad to support Hezbollah

By RAWYA RAGEH, Associated Press Writer 6 minutes ago


BAGHDAD, Iraq - Hundreds of followers of a radical Shiite cleric left a southern Iraqi city on Thursday to join a rally in the capital condemning Israeli attacks on Lebanon, while at least 13 people were killed or found dead in the latest sectarian violence.

Muqtada al-Sadr, a firebrand anti-U.S. cleric who commands a large militia, has called on his followers from around the country to congregate in Baghdad on Friday after the weekly prayers. The rally, scheduled to be held in the Shiite slum of Sadr City in eastern Baghdad, will show support for the Shiite Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah in its fight against Israel..


And..

Iraqi Cleric Demands Cease-Fire In Lebanon

Iraq's Top Shiite Cleric Demands Immediate Cease-Fire in Lebanon As Outrage Spreads


BAGHDAD, Iraq Jul 30, 2006 (AP)— Iraq's top Shiite cleric Sunday demanded an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon, warning the Muslim world will "not forgive" nations that stand in the way of stopping the fighting.

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued the call following the Israeli airstrike that killed at least 56 Lebanese, mostly women and children, in the village of Qana. It was the deadliest attack in nearly three weeks of fighting.

"Islamic nations will not forgive the entities that hinder a cease-fire," al-Sistani said, in a clear reference to the United States.

"It is not possible to stand helpless in front of this Israeli aggression on Lebanon," he added. "If an immediate cease-fire in this Israeli aggression is not imposed, dire consequences will befall the region."


Did I remember to mention earlier that Sistani and al-Sadr are of Iranian descent?

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Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Bush/Rice Apocalypticism

It seems I'm not the only one to pick up on the apocalyptic overtones of Condi Rice's recent bizarre statements.

Today The New Republic posted an article dealing with the same theme. Earlier, the popular blog, The Daily Kos asked the burning question, "Is Condi Speaking in Fundi Code?"

Short answer: Yes.

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Tuesday, August 01, 2006

An Apocalyptic Vision

As mentioned in an earlier post, about a week ago Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described the carnage now taking place in Lebanon as "the birth pangs of a new middle-east". Since hearing that bizarre statement for the first time I've struggled with the question of which is sicker, the woman who says such a thing or the society that accepts the statement as truth.

What a fascinating way to think of what's happening there. I'm a relatively new father myself. I was present for the birth of my son and bore witness to actual birth pangs with my own eyes. I don't remember seeing anything that looked like this:





To me this looks like the exact opposite of "birth", Ms. Rice, you sick bitch. Where you may see the flowering of your dreams for the middle-east, I see dead people. Dead children, dead women and dead men. I can only imagine what kind of apocalyptic mindset it takes to liken what we're seeing unfold in Lebanon to the "birth" of anything desirable. It must be fairly easy for people, long estranged from their humanity, to see children blown to pieces and, like mad scientists, deem it a worthy sacrifice for their own cause, so long as the ones paying this sacrifice are someone else, somewhere else. How magnanimous of you to volunteer the people of Lebanon and their children to make this sacrifice for your glorious cause. You have truly learned how to stop worrying and love the bomb.

Of course, we're told by Ms. Rice, Mr. Bush and others how "concerned" they are about the bloodshed while they fight tooth and nail to prevent a ceasefire. As the reasoning goes, this will all end for the better because the result will be this "new middle-east" where Lebanon's democracy is safer and stronger, fertilized in the blood of the dead. But is that really the aim here? Not if you believe Israel's Justice Minister who told us very plainly early into this military campaign that Israel intends to "turn back Lebanon's clock 20 years". He doesn't sound like he's planning for a better middle-east or to protect Lebanon's democracy. Who should we believe?

A valuable clue just so happens to have come from the US President himself just this past Thursday, as per my previous post. In a press availability following his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki (an interesting fellow I've discussed earlier), Mr. Bush had this to say about the situation:

"One of the things I've said from the beginning is that it's important for the Lebanese democracy to survive and to become strong. So what you're watching is American policy aiming to strengthen Lebanese democracy so that we can have peace."


That's a pretty significant statement there. The President of the United States just told us that an offensive military action by the Israeli armed forces is a manifestation of American policy. Of course, deep down we all knew that but it's something else to hear the President admit it. It sheds an entirely different light on things.

Fortunately, our leaders have an answer for that too. "Israel has a right to defend herself," they tell us. So this is all an American policy for the self-defense of Israel (???). Hezbollah, they say, is responsible for all of this because on July 12th they launched the cross-border raid that ended in the death of 9 Israeli soldiers and the abduction of 2 others. However, if this is a defensive action it is certainly an incredibly prescient one because, as we have recently learned, Israel had been planning this action for the last year and the Hezbollah raid simply provided the pretext for setting it into motion (in self-defense, of course). So, to surmise, we are to believe that Israel is defending itself, as per American policy, by implementing an action they'd decided upon a full year before the attack from which they're defending themselves.

Or we can be reasonable and see that argument for the nonsense it is. We can believe that this is indeed American policy, yes. But it is in no way even comparable to "self-defense". The response we're seeing is disproportionate, collective punishment that we now know was also premeditated. Even the Hezbollah raid against which they are ostensibly defending themselves was perhaps intentionally provoked. Unreported in the major US media is the fact that Israel had been abducting Lebanese civilians and militants, attempting targeted assassinations and firing rockets of their own into Lebanon for months.

The real reasoning behind this premeditated action is this apocalyptic vision of a "new middle-east" that Condi alluded to in her disturbing statement. Over a year ago Vice President Dick Cheney foreshadowed the end-game:


"Well, one of the concerns people have is that Israel might do it without being asked, that if, in fact, the Israelis became convinced the Iranians had significant nuclear capability, given the fact that Iran has a stated policy that their objective is the destruction of Israel, the Israelis might well decide to act first, and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess afterwards.


That sounds so much like a tacit recommendation cloaked in plausible deniability that I just can't stand it. But one could argue that he didn't mean it that way at all. After all, that's what plausible deniability is all about.


But Thursday, President Bush gave us the confirmation and removed all doubt. In the same press statement cited here earlier, where he described this as "American policy", he also said:

"And now's the time to address the root cause of the problem, and the root cause of the problem is terrorist groups trying to stop the advance of democracies. Hezbollah attacked Israel. I believe Hezbollah -- I know Hezbollah is connected to Iran. And now's the time for the world to confront this danger."


That's where this is going. That's what this is all for. All the rest is pretext. Israel is initiating a plan drawn up by us to facilitate a military strike, possibly a nuclear one, on Iran. This is the latest great event that we will be asked to believe will revolutionize the middle-east for the better. It is an apocalyptic vision bathed in blood. What's worse, it will fail and it will backfire on all of us. God help us all.

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Monday, July 31, 2006

Pretext for an even greater mass murder

I give you your King, George W. Bush:

"I -- you know, I -- I believe this; I believe that -- that, as Condi said yesterday, the Middle East is littered with, you know, agreements that just didn't work. And now's the time to address the root cause of the problem, and the root cause of the problem is terrorist groups trying to stop the advance of democracies. Hizbollah attacked Israel. I believe Hizbollah -- I know Hizbollah is connected to Iran. And now's the time for the world to confront this danger.


I wonder what that means...

Also: Here's more audio (Real Player) from USA Today from that same press statement. This piece is so riddled with nonsense that it just boggles the mind. For instance:


"I understand that whatever's done diplomatically must address the root cause and the root cause is terrorist activity."


The root cause is terrorist activity? What causes the terrorist activity, dip!sht? Is it your contention that people blow themselves up on a lark? Out of boredom? You don't suppose they might have a grievance of some sort, do you? "The root cause is terrorist activity." Incredible. As I've said earlier, the first suicide bombing was done in response to exactly the kind of thing that is being done to Lebanon today. Could he possibly be more idiotic than this? As you will soon see, yes.

One of the things I've said from the beginning is that it's important for the Lebanese democracy to survive and to become strong. So what you're watching is American policy...


There you have it. "What you're watching is American policy." He didn't say "Israeli policy" did he? You can't get more difinitive than that, folks.

"...aiming to strengthen Lebanese democracy so that we can have peace."

By bombing it to smithereens. The inferences embedded in such statement can summed up thusly:

  • "Annihilation is strength."
  • "'Around-the-clock bombing is peace."
  • "Ceasefire is to be feared."

We are one "Freedom is slavery" away from a full deck.

"I view this as a clash of forms of government."

Lebanese democracy vs US/Israeli imperialism/zionism. Clash of Civilizations, anyone?

"I see people who can't stand the thought of democracy taking hold... in part of the... in-i'-i'-i'--in the middle east. And as democracy begins to advance they use terrorist tactics to stop it."

These people who supposedly can't stand the thought of democracy taking hold are, it's safe to assume, Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah is a political party in
Lebanon that participates actively and legally in the very same Lebanese democracy that this man was praising just a few months ago. They hold roughly 10% of the parliamentary seats in the democracy that must be saved (through annihilation). Hamas, for their part, participated in the democratic elections that this man called for in the Palestinian Authority. They won the election fair and square. They backed away from their denial of Israel's right to exist and were rewarded with an international sanction and blockade, bomb attacks and their cabinet and legislative officials rounded up, imprisoned and/or threatened with death. So who is it who can't stand democracy exactly?

"...So our objective is to make sure those who use terrorist tactics are not rewarded and at the same time, help those who've suffered."


And he's helping those who've suffered by doing what, exactly? By fighting any imposition of a ceasefire that might, oh I don't know, stop the bombing that's killing them?

I want you all to think about the kind of contempt for the audience that is required to enable someone to spit this kind of nonsense into a microphone. Think about the apocalyptic mindset one would have to have in order to conceive of a total annihilation like the one taking place in
Lebanon as a "birth pang of the new middle-east", as it was recently described by Condoleeza Rice, or as a saving grace of Lebanese democracy as Bush presents it here. If these are the people steering the ship, you best believe they're looking out for icebergs, but not in order to avoid them. Don't believe for one second that this fool is above dropping a nuke on Iran.

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Transparent pretext for mass murder will backfire

Consider the Israeli attacks that killed 4 UN observers in Lebanon the other day. The word from Israel and the US on this now is that the attacks were justified because Hezbollah was "operating" nearby. This is and will continue to be a main theme promoted in the news media going forward. I heard this described on the radio today as Hezbollah's "cowardly tactic" of "hiding" in civilian areas. The people who allow them to hide, the reasoning goes, are accomplices and justify Israel killing as many Lebanese civilians as they deem fit. As Israel's Justice Minister has already announced publicly, "All those now in south Lebanon are terrorists who are related in some way to Hezbollah." This is nothing more than a self-serving pretext designed to justify a mass-murder that Israel and the US have already decided to undertake.

What is really meant by saying Hezbollah was "operating" in the area? Is Hezbollah only a militia that carries out guerilla attacks? I'll answer that. No. Hezbollah is much more than a just paramilitary or terrorist unit. They are a full-blown social and political movement. Yes, they have the militant wing we hear so much about, true enough. But they have a strong social services wing as well. They run schools. They run shelters. They run food banks. They run hospitals and clinics. On top of all of that, they are also an active, grass-roots political party with strong local support. So what is meant when the Israelis and US claim that Hezbollah was "operating" nearby or that they had a "base of operations" there? I think that's a good question. Someone with a microphone should ask it.

Imagine for a moment these Hezbollah "operations" that are being targeted are not military in nature at all. Suppose instead that, like the victims in the attack on the UN observation post, the people who are being attacked are ordinary folks, citizens seeking social services and the workers there to provide it for them. The survivors, who politically may have been fence-sitters, might experience a change of opinion in favor Hezbollah after seeing their loved ones torn to pieces by
Israel's US-made bombs. It just so happens that these multi-pronged activities Hezbollah provides in that community positions them uniquely to take advantage of any groundswell in anti-Israeli sentiments this bombardment may inspire. It gives them instant access to streams of disaffected, displaced and angry victims to whom they can provide shelter, nourishment, clothing and, most significantly, an immediate outlet for revenge.

Yes. As a result of this Israeli campaign in
Lebanon, Hezbollah will be stronger. Just as one previous occupation created them, the second will strengthen them. There are nearly 4-million people in Lebanon. Should Israel
kill them all?

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